The Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa
The Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) aims to respond to the South African National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCRP) by developing national and sub-national adaptation scenarios for South Africa under plausible future climate conditions and development pathways. This will be used to inform key decisions in future development and adaptation planning so as to build climate resilience.
The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) is leading this process in collaboration with technical research partner the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and with technical and financial assistance from Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
The first phase, completed in June 2013, developed a consensus view of climate change trends and projections for South Africa. It summarised key climate change impacts and identified potential response options for primary sectors, namely water, agriculture and forestry, human health, marine fisheries, and biodiversity. (see: Phase 1 research and policy products below)
The second phase, completed in July 2014, used an integrated assessment approach and model to develop adaptation scenarios for future climate conditions using the information, data and models from Phase 1 and inputs from a range of stakeholder consultations and task-team workshops. The LTAS Phase 2 reports are currently in preparation for publication. (see: Phase 2 Adaptation Scenarios Factsheet Series below)
Phase 2 process:
The first 3-day stakeholder workshop on 22-24 January 2014 used a plenary presentation and discussion approach in addition to breakaway sessions to obtain recommendations on reasonable and feasible adjustments to proposed methodologies, content and activities. (see 22-24 January workshop report and workshop presentations below)
The second 2-day stakeholder workshop on 12-13 March used a range of participatory methods, including world café and break away groups to inform the adaptation scenario building process. Specifically, participants identified key risks and adaptation responses and integrated these into stories/ narratives about South Africa’s plausible climate-global futures: warmer-wetter, warmer-drier (decarbonising world); and hotter-wetter, hotter-drier (high carbon world) (see 12-13 March workshop report, photo documentation and workshop presentations below).
The insights and input obtained from both stakeholder workshops were used in conjunction with past and current biophysical and economic research and modelling results, including the costs of adaptation, to build three core adaptation scenarios for the country under wetter; drier (<3 degrees) and hotter (>3 degrees) climate futures.
Please see table 1 below for a full list of products that will be available from LTAS phase 2 towards the end of 2014. There will be a total of seven technical reports; including one main report describing South Africa’s long term adaptation scenarios.
- Climate Change Implications for the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
- Climate Information and Early Warning Systems for Supporting the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in South Africa under Future Climates.
- Climate Change Implications for the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Sector.
- Climate Change Implications for the Urban, Rural and Coastal Human Settlements in South Africa
- Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in South Africa – towards an integrated economic analysis
- The Economics of Adaptation to Future Climates in South Africa (2030 and 2050) – An integrated biophysical and economic analysis of development and adaptation scenarios under future climates
- South Africa’s Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios
LTAS Newsletters and workshop products
LTAS Newsletter 1 (November 2013) Updates on Progress of the LTAS
SA Risk and Vulnerability Atlas Newsletter (April 2014)
12-13 March workshop presentations & results:
22-24 January 2014 stakeholder workshop:
- Day 1 Climate Change Impacts for SADC Countries
- Day 1 Climate Information and Early Warning Systems supporting DRR&M
- Day 1 Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Modelling
- Day 1 SANBI Overview of LTAS
- Day 2 Climate Change Implications for Human Settlements
- Day 2 Economic Impacts: UNU-WIDER CGE Model CC RSA
- Day 2 Modelling Economic Impacts of Climate Change
- Day 3 Long-term Development and Adaptation Scenarios Planning
- Day 3 SANBI Overview of LTAS
To download the LTAS Workshop Report conducted on 22-24 January 2014, click here.
Phase 1 research and policy products:
Summary for policy makers (a summary of high-level and key messages emerging from Phase 1)
Six technical reports (detailed results and information for climate trends and scenarios and economic sectors in South Africa).
Note: High res documents uploaded except for Climate Trends and Scenarios.
Low res versions and hard copy box sets of these reports are available
by special request from Gigi Laidler.
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Trends and Scenarios for South Africa (Low res version uploaded here - high res version available by special request - contact Gigi Laidler)
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Change Implications for the Water Sector in South Africa
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Change Implications for the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors in South Africa
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Change Implications for Human Health in South Africa
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Change Implications for Marine Fisheries in South Africa
- LTAS Tech Report: Climate Change Implications for the Biodiversity Sector in South Africa
Climate and Impacts Factsheet Series:
Climate Trends and Scenarios
Climate Change and the Water Sector
Climate Change and the Agriculture Sector
Climate Change and Human Health
Climate Change and Marine Fisheries
Climate Change and Biodiversity
LTAS Phase 1 Methodology
Phase 2 Adaptation Scenarios Factsheet Series:
- Fact sheet 1: Southern African Development Community (SADC)
- Fact sheet 2: Climate Information & Early Warning Systems
- Fact sheet 3: Disaster Risk Reduction & Management
- Fact sheet 4: Human Settlements
- Fact sheet 5: Food Security
- Fact sheet 6: Economics
- Fact sheet 7: Scenarios