Climate change research 
Our group's work on climate change tries to identify where ecosystems are vulnerable - which species? which processes? - and quantify potential responses to climate change and other factors through experimentation and modeling. This enables us to support conservation planners and managers in the development of adaptive strategies and actions. Our research is supported by substantial databases of species distributions housed in the South African National Biodiversity Institute and elsewhere, which are used in conjunction with climate datasets to develop bioclimatic models as tools to project impacts. These approaches have now been applied to thousands of species, and some principles for modifying conservation planning strategies have been developed. We are now busy developing dynamic modeling approaches that incorporate non-equilibrium population demographic and ecosystem processes, so that we can derive more realistic projections of species responses to climate change. To support this effort, we bolster our modeling approaches with a range of field experiments that mimic future and past climates by using warming enclosures, drought treatments and reciprocal transplants along altitudinal gradients. We are also concerned with the modeling of ecosystem dynamic responses to climate change, and in particular the role of fire as a disturbance that modifies species and ecosystem response to climate change. Ultimately, we hope to combine ecosystem dynamic and population demographic modeling approaches in an effective "hybrid" modeling system. For more information about climate change see:
For more information about this programme contact Guy Midgley |
