Research overview 
History of the group The Global Change Research Group (known until 2005 as the Climate Change Research Group) evolved from a set of projects begun in the early 1990s to study climate change impacts on indigenous South African flora. Our early work on invasive species and on elevated atmospheric CO 2 and UV-B radiation drew on the backgrounds and strengths of the small research team of that era. This work grew in complexity and scope, to investigate system responses to these stresses, including field and microcosm studies on multi-species mixes. Key modeling expertise was enhanced during the course of the South African Country Study on Climate Change in 1999. A new set of internationally-funded projects was added, in order to develop more robust and generic approaches to modeling geographic range shifts of thousands of indigenous and invasive alien species. More recently, complex modeling approaches have been pursued that allow aspects of ecosystem function to be investigated, such as fire frequency and hydrological response. The group has also expanded its experimental activities to study climate impacts along natural ecological gradients, and greenhouse- and field-based warming and drought experiments . We have developed an innovative greenhouse-based CO 2 fumigation system that allows insights in to the responses of plants to the full range of atmospheric CO 2 levels of the Pleistocene, improving our interpretation of paleoclimatic and paleoecological patterns in southern Africa . Most recently, the group has begun exploring synergistic interactions between climate change and other important global change trends, such as invasive species . These form the basis for future efforts to project major global change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and society in South Africa , southern Africa, and Africa as a whole . Click below for more information on current activities: Current key questions and research activities GCRG members address key questions about ecosystem and biodiversity vulnerability to global change using integrated experimental and modeling approaches. These include the following:
- How will biodiversity in species-rich ecosystems respond to climate change, and other interacting stresses such as invasive alien species (IAS)?
- Will there be an increasing extinction risk in populations of endemic species under climate change scenarios?
- How can conservation strategies be adapted to cope with the impacts of climate change and other compounding global change factors?
- How will climate change affect the invasive potential of alien species?
- How will changing levels of atmospheric CO 2 affect the structure and function of fire-prone ecosystems?
These are some of our current and recent projects:
- Impacts of sub-ambient and elevated atmospheric CO 2 on African savanna tree species
- Impacts of elevated CO 2 on the hydrological response of a tropical grassland ecosystem
- Impacts of warming on field populations of Succulent Karoo species
- Impacts of warming on the germination and early growth of Fynbos species
- Controls by temperature and water supply on plant growth of selected functional types on an altitudinal Fynbos-Succulent Karoo gradient
- Responses of Savanna species to environmental stress on an ecological gradient, the Kalahari Transect
- Impacts and controls of invasive grass species in the Succulent Karoo
- Modeling dynamic population responses of Mediterranean-climate species to anthropogenic climate change
- Accounting for seed dispersal and migration limitations on species range responses to climate change
- Modeling ecosystem functional responses to climate change using dynamic global vegetation modeling (DGVM) approaches
- Assessing the vulnerability of southern African endemic flora to both climate change and land transformation
- Evaluating the extinction risks of medium-to-large mammals to climate change and land transformation across Africa
- Evaluating the effects of climate change on endemic species, vegetation structure and ecosystem functions in Namibia, a semi-arid hot country
- Using niche-based modeling as a tool for predicting the global risk of alien plant invasion Determinants of species richness patterns in South African flora
Integrated research / policy programmes on biodiversity and ecosystems
- Biodiversity, invasive species and climate change (BISCC): predicting compound impacts in vulnerable areas of Africa and the Mediterranean
- Global change, biodiversity, ecosystems and society in Africa (GCBESA): policy, planning and management implications of vulnerability
|
